It’s a picture of me and Scott Murphy. The quality is bad, taken with my phone, and I can’t say I have the nicest phone in the world. Still, I think it’s pretty cool.
Will he win today? I don’t know. I think that if I was forced to pick a winner, it would be Murphy. Although he started out with huge deficit against Tedisco, Murphy has really made a name for himself. On top of that, he has the momentum going for him. On February 26th, Siena was showing him with a 12-point deficit against Tedisco. The latest Siena poll (.pdf) shows Murphy with a 4-point lead.
With Special Elections, especially one for a Congressional seat, turnout is always extremely low, so the margin of error on such a poll could be very high. Nate Silver makes some good points concerning this:
“Siena is the only non-partisan pollster to have surveyed this race. (The Tedisco camp disputes the result, citing internal polling that still shows them with a lead). Siena’s record as a pollster is, to be frank, fairly average, although this particular race is almost literally in their back yard, as NY-20 wraps around the town of Loudonville, where Siena College is located.”
Still, if the polling shows one thing, and one thing at all, it’s that the momentum is in Murphy’s favor.
I understand that this post is slightly late, as the polls close in three and a half hours. Still, I thought I’d comment nonetheless.
Late update: Something I wanted to mention and forgot to was that Murphy mentioned when he came here that Tedisco isn’t even voting, because, well… he’s not registered in this district. On top of that, he’s not campaigning today. He’s not canvassing. Not knocking on doors. Nothing. That just seems a little sad and pathetic to me.
March 31, 2009 at 3:39 pm
Me And Scott Murphy
It’s a picture of me and Scott Murphy. The quality is bad, taken with my phone, and I can’t say I have the nicest phone in the world. Still, I think it’s pretty cool.
Will he win today? I don’t know. I think that if I was forced to pick a winner, it would be Murphy. Although he started out with huge deficit against Tedisco, Murphy has really made a name for himself. On top of that, he has the momentum going for him. On February 26th, Siena was showing him with a 12-point deficit against Tedisco. The latest Siena poll (.pdf) shows Murphy with a 4-point lead.
With Special Elections, especially one for a Congressional seat, turnout is always extremely low, so the margin of error on such a poll could be very high. Nate Silver makes some good points concerning this:
Still, if the polling shows one thing, and one thing at all, it’s that the momentum is in Murphy’s favor.
I understand that this post is slightly late, as the polls close in three and a half hours. Still, I thought I’d comment nonetheless.
Late update: Something I wanted to mention and forgot to was that Murphy mentioned when he came here that Tedisco isn’t even voting, because, well… he’s not registered in this district. On top of that, he’s not campaigning today. He’s not canvassing. Not knocking on doors. Nothing. That just seems a little sad and pathetic to me.
March 31, 2009 at 3:39 pm Leave a comment